Mexico: Will the Next President Prioritize the Environment?
Mexico is grappling with severe environmental challenges, such as air and water pollution, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and the impacts of climate change. The country's response to these issues is a complex mix of policy measures, technological solutions, and community-based initiatives. However, the management of air and water pollution stands out as the most pressing challenges. Air pollution alone is responsible for nearly 33,000 deaths annually in the country. The situation is equally dire in Mexico City, the nation's capital, where water pollution and mismanagement have reached alarming levels. The city's disconnection from its natural hydrological cycle and heavy reliance on large water transfers have led to unequal access to water, posing serious health and safety concerns for a significant portion of the population.
Currently, Mexico City is facing a severe water shortage as drought conditions intensified by climate change put unprecedented strain on the city's water supply system. Local authorities have addressed water shortages by implementing rationing, leading to intermittent supply and periods without running water for residents.
Over the years, the Mexican government has responded to environmental challenges through a combination of different strategies. The current administration, led by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has taken a nuanced approach to environmental and climate policies. While there have been actions that favor fossil fuels over renewable energy, the government has also made commitments to international climate goals. Despite the challenges, Mexico has set ambitious targets, aiming to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050.
In June, Mexico will hold its presidential election, a crucial event that could significantly shape the country's environmental future. Although the two main candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez, share similar perspectives on Mexico's environmental issues, some differences do exist.
Sheinbaum, expected to maintain energy nationalism, is a staunch advocate for climate change action and sees renewable energy as a key solution. While she supports state-run companies like PEMEX and CFE, she might also consider engaging with private energy firms and adopting a more technocratic approach to President López Obrador's policies. On the other hand, Gálvez may prioritize macroeconomic stability and private investment, potentially leading to a more decentralized energy sector and increased private sector involvement in state-owned firms. These differing strategies underscore the importance of the election in shaping Mexico's environmental policies and regulations and, thus, the future of the country's environmental landscape.
This week, I talked to Marcel Anduiza, a Research Associate at Harvard Business School. He specializes in regional and international studies in Latin America, U.S.-Mexico relations, and the Americas' role in the East Asia-Pacific Region.
In this discussion, we explore Mexico's environmental policy challenges, the potential for stronger policies under potential president Claudia Sheinbaum, and how the nation is addressing issues like water scarcity and environmental damage while leveraging opportunities in renewables and electric vehicles.
1. Policy Implementation:
What have been the main challenges in implementing environmental policies in Mexico, and how have these affected the country's ability to meet its domestic objectives and international commitments?
Like many aspects of the U.S.-Mexico relationship, there seems to be a convergence of environmental policies and regulatory frameworks between Mexico and the United States. However, mega infrastructural and energy projects such as the canceled NAIM Texcoco Airport, the recently-inaugurated Tren Maya, the Mountain Valley Pipeline, and the Keystone XL Pipeline have been severely questioned for having sidelined broader environmental concerns.
The U.S.-Mexico border faces shared environmental challenges such as wastewater management and pollution at the Tijuana River Watershed and the Colorado River drought crisis. Facing this problem together, both countries have a long history of water management and cooperation led by the International Boundary and Water Commission, as seen in the 1944 Water Treaty. Both nations have to adapt to long-term projections and collaboration.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement has strengthened the existing framework of cooperation and the enforcement of environmental laws and regulations in all three countries. Its Chapter 24 addresses issues like illegal fishing, logging, wildlife trafficking, and pollution that harm local communities and the environment.
2. Enforcement of Environmental Laws:
Can you discuss the enforcement of environmental laws in Mexico and how it compares to other countries, such as the United States?
Both Mexico and the U.S. have established environmental institutions, Mexico’s PROFEPA and the U.S.’s EPA, to enforce domestic regulations within international commitments. In Mexico, the 2013 Federal Environmental Liability Law provides a comprehensive framework for environmental liability. The Federal Law of Environmental Responsibility regulates environmental harm and its legal consequences.
While both nations use fines, inspections, and legal actions to ensure compliance, lax or inconsistent implementation, changing policies across administrations, and a maze of state regulations can hinder enforcement.
The U.S. and Mexico share common goals in environmental policy. USMCA's Chapter 24 incorporates multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) that are enforceable, addressing varied environmental issues. This chapter has helped strengthen environmental law enforcement in Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, as evidenced by a surge in environmental complaints in Mexico.
3. Upcoming Elections and Environmental Policy:
How might the upcoming presidential elections impact Mexico's environmental policies?
Fortunately, Mexico is not presented with the impossible dilemma of choosing between an environmentally friendly candidate and an outwardly hostile one, as was the case in other countries in the Americas such as Brazil and the United States. Mexico's leading candidates, Xochitl Gálvez and Claudia Sheinbaum, both propose sound environmental policies.
Galvez’s platform includes extensive proposals on a variety of environmental issues, including water management, circular economies, and climate change. She has also detailed plans to address water scarcity problems in Mexico City, and she has paid attention to thorny environmental issues across the country. Claudia Sheinbaum, leading presidential candidate for 2024, has a long track record in the field of environmental policy. An energy engineer, a PhD from Berkeley University, and a member of the IPCC team that won the 2007 Nobel Prize, she has a wealth of experience. As Mexico City's Secretary of Environment under AMLO’s mayorship, she revitalized Chapultepec Park and as Mayor, initiated numerous environmental initiatives, including tree planting, park recovery, solar park construction, river cleanups, eco-friendly transport promotion, and stricter vehicle emissions standards. Sheinbaum, leading the "Diálogos por la Transformación" policy roundtables, appointed Jorge Marcial Islas Samperio, a UNAM physicist and energy engineer. Her campaign has organized many roundtable policy discussions to enrich environmental policy proposals as well socio-environmental justice.
Both leading presidential candidates, Gálvez and Sheinbaum, have ambitious environmental plans and they have explicitly mentioned those plans in their respective party platforms. However, Sheinbaum's experience and track record suggest she might implement more effective environmental policies if elected.
4. Future Challenges and Opportunities:
Looking forward, what do you see as the biggest challenges and opportunities for Mexico in terms of environmental sustainability, given its political climate?
Biggest Challenges:
Water scarcity in Mexico City, an age-old issue due to historical draining (projects since the 16th century) and modernist planning (in the mid-twentieth century). There’s a multiplicity of innovative private and public projects, i.e., “Isla Urbana” and the New Ecological Park of Texcoco Project that are coming up with creative ways to solve the crisis.
Environmental damage risk in the Yucatan Peninsula due to tourism development since the 1970s. With the Tren Maya, there is a complicated balancing act between developing the poor interior of the Yucatan Pensinula by bringing the tourist bonanza to it and protecting the environment. However, if not properly regulated, this could lead to overdevelopment, creating a "coastal squeeze" with significant ecological damage.
If Trump wins the election in the United States, he will most likely roll back environmental policies and dial back environmental policy cooperation with the rest of the world, as he did so during his first administration. This would hinder North American environmental cooperation.
Opportunities:
The biggest opportunity will be Mexico’s new emphasis on renewable energy. This aligns with its ambitious renewable targets, international climate commitments, and domestic laws like the General Climate Change Law and the Energy Transition Law.
The manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) has witnessed significant momentum in Mexico. The Tesla Gigafactory Mexico in Monterrey will become a key player in the production of EVs, enhancing sustainability in Mexico's transportation sector. Simultaneously, Mexico has experienced a surge of Chinese BYD electric vehicles, reflecting the growing demand for greener, affordable mobility solutions.
The 2026 USMCA review is a chance for the U.S. and Mexico to reassess cooperation on environmental matters. This could involve decarbonizing electricity, deepening the green transition, and introducing joint initiatives for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation initiatives. The Paris Agreement could potentially be incorporated into the USMCA's Chapter 24. Also, the yet to be ratified new agreement on trade, that is part of a broader, modernized EU-Mexico Global Agreement, presents opportunities for advancing environmental efforts and green transition.
To find out more about Marcel, visit his website here and follow him LinkedIn.
Several policies significantly influence Mexico's environmental landscape, from local laws to international agreements. Collectively, they shape the country's approach to tackling environmental challenges and promoting sustainable practices. Policy highlights include:
The General Law of Climate Change: Adopted in 2012, this policy formed the foundation of the country's climate strategy. It includes the objective of achieving zero deforestation by 2030 and the potential mitigation benefits of reaching this goal.
The Energy Transition Law: It aims to enhance sustainable energy use, mandate power companies' clean energy share, reduce industry emissions, and ensure the competitiveness of the clean power sector.
The Law of General Ecological Balance and Protection of the Environment: This law, revised from 2016 to 2018, serves as Mexico's environmental framework. It addresses climate change, introduces new regulations, and mandates public interest in climate change efforts.
As Mexico stands on the brink of a pivotal election, the need for effective environmental policies has never been more pressing. Both presidential candidates face the challenge of balancing economic growth and environmental preservation. The policies chosen by the next government will be instrumental in shaping Mexico's environmental path.